A battle of the Syrian south and its political results

ARKNews: Member of Political Bureau of Kurdistan Democratic Party – Syria, Dr. Abdul Hakim Bashar wrote a report on the violation of Syrian regime agreement of reducing the escalation in the south of Syria and the end of the presence of armed factions from that region by a Russian agreement and its air coverage, in addition to how to end the Iranian military presence in the south and this is stated in the following report:
ARKnews: The south of Syrian has been a part of the agreements among reducing of the escalation by a US agreement where a wide-ranging talks began in May 2017 in the Jordanian capital, Amman between the United States of America, the Russian Federation and Jordan to reach an agreement on reducing the escalation in southern Syria, announced by the US and Russian presidents on the sidelines The summit of the twentieth largest economies in the world, which was held in the city of Hamburg, Germany to reach a cease-fire agreement in the south of Syria, including the provinces of Daraa - Kenitra and Suweida to enter into force at 12:00 on Sunday, July 9, 2017. The resolution provided for the South of Syrian ceasefire between the conflicting parties of Syrian regime and its allies on the one hand and the armed opposition on the other hand, and to allow humanitarian access to these areas that the security of these areas is located on Russian forces in cooperation and coordination with the United States and Jordan.
So, what happened, how Syrian regime launched the war against the province of Daraa? Did he himself decide to abolish the zone of reduction of escalation, which is a superpower agreement? Does the regime dare to do so? If it does not receive a green light from the sponsors or guarantors of reducing the escalation in the south.

The answer have come very clear from America, which declared that the southern factions should decide for themselves’ identity what to do and do not expect the use of military support by America. On the other hand, Russia, which was the second sponsor, participated strongly in the air raids on the province of Horan, the cradle of the Syrian revolution, targeting the armed factions that agreed to reducing the escalation.
So: Why did the sponsor of the agreement of reduction the escalation in the south decide to end it?
What are the political significances of it?

1. After a visit of the President of Syrian regime to Russia ( more correctly called up by the Russians) and he was asked by Mr. Putin the need to take out the Iranian forces, and the response of the President of the regime in a statement later was that there is no Iranian forces, in Syria, but there are Iranian officers for consulting, thus the Syrian regime denied the presence of Iranian forces in order to work to get them out.
For Russia, the Iranian presence has become a politically by a burden anymore and a competitor in areas under the regime's control, where conflicting interests of the two countries on many issues, both in terms of influence on the Syrian regime and its decisions or economic interests, especially after ensuring Russia's interests green light US, which may be the division of spheres of influence or interests on the main agenda of the two countries in their next meeting.

3. changing of the priorities of the United States of America in Syria and now the priority is to defeat ISIS and terrorism first, and then curb Iranian influence in the region starting from Syria and seek to remove Iranian forces from Syria, and thus intersect US-Russian interests in this particular point (curb Iranian influence and taking them out of Syria).
But there are questions that introduce themselves: How can Iran's influence be reduced and removed from Syria? Is it using military force or political persuasion? Or pressure the regime to demand the withdrawal of Iranian forces? We believe firmly that the Syrian regime will not dare to demand that Iran withdraw its forces from Syria because that would cost his regime and his life. The Iranian regime is no longer a military presence in specific areas in Syriaو but a strong penetration of all the institutions of the regime.

There will be no US or US-Russian joint military solution against Iranian forces, in order to force them out of Syria.
The only thing that could happen is the Israeli military strikes to keep the Iranian forces away from its borders. Otherwise, Iranian forces may resort to a hundred tricks to stay in Syria, including the involvement of regime forces and the wearing of military uniforms, thereby maximizing its influence and control even directly in the hands of the Syrian army.
Which confirms that the trick had been imposed on the US administration, which gave up protecting the south in return for the withdrawal of Iranian forces
But the result is to strengthen the Iranian role at the expense of the Syrian people and its revolution, and thus strengthen the role of the regime and its authority and the loss of America in this Convention and the loss of many of its credibility.

Dr. Abdul Hakim Bashar

2-7-2018

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