NATO Warned of Potential Jet Fuel Shortage That Could Undermine Its Military Capabilities in a Future War

ARK News.. A new study backed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has warned that the alliance’s forces could face a severe shortage of jet fuel in any future war in Europe. The shortfall could undermine military preparedness amid declining oil-refining capacity across the continent and an accelerating shift towards cleaner energy sources.

Politico reported details of the study, published in September, which found that fuel demand from NATO military aircraft could exceed available supplies if a large-scale conflict broke out in Europe over the next decade, involving European member states and reinforcements from North America.

The warning comes amid growing European concerns about the possibility of a direct military confrontation with Russia, following increased hybrid warfare activities and acts of sabotage attributed to Moscow in recent months.

While NATO members are spending billions of euros on aircraft, tanks, missiles and drones, the study suggests that securing adequate fuel supplies could become one of the main obstacles to sustaining a prolonged military campaign.

According to the report, a senior NATO military official said reliable fuel supplies were essential to military readiness and the alliance’s deterrence and defence capabilities. He stressed that securing sufficient energy supplies might require military needs to take priority over civilian consumption.

Researchers attributed part of the potential supply crisis to carbon-emissions reduction policies adopted by European countries and their allies. They argued that these policies had accelerated the closure of several oil refineries, which form an important part of the infrastructure needed to maintain military fuel reserves.

Data from FuelsEurope and the European Commission show that around a quarter of the continent’s oil refineries have closed since 2009, reducing regional refining capacity. Approximately 70 refineries remain operational and are still capable of meeting European market demand, including for jet fuel.

Although the study does not necessarily represent NATO’s official position, it draws on research by the alliance’s Energy Security Centre of Excellence, based in Vilnius, Lithuania, which provides member states with strategic and operational analysis on energy security.

The researchers warned that Europe’s fuel supply system could reach its maximum capacity if a large-scale war broke out on NATO member states’ European territory, triggering Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty and the deployment of substantial forces from North America.

They added that even restrictions on civilian consumption would not be enough, under the worst plausible scenarios, to balance supply and demand from the mid-2030s onwards unless measures were taken in advance to address the potential shortfall.

According to the study’s estimates, diverting all jet fuel available for civilian use to military purposes would still fail to meet the alliance’s needs. The projected shortfall could reach 4.7 million tonnes by 2035 and rise to 50 million tonnes by 2050.

1